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The severity of covid-19

Publish Time: 2020-07-01     Origin: Site

Importance: Reported death rates from different countries during the COVID-19 pandemic vary. Lack of universal testing and death underreporting make between-country comparisons difficult. The country-level determinants of COVID-19 mortality are unknown. Objective: Derive a measure of COVID-related death rates that is comparable across countries and identify its country-level predictors. Design: An ecological study design of publicly available data was employed. Countries reporting >25 COVID-related deaths until 08/06/2020 were included. The outcome was log mean mortality rate from COVID-19, an estimate of the country-level daily increase in reported deaths during the ascending phase of the epidemic curve. Potential determinants assessed were most recently published demographic parameters (population and population density, percentage population living in urban areas, median age, average body mass index, smoking prevalence), Economic parameters (Gross Domestic Product per capita); environmental parameters: pollution levels, mean temperature (January-April)), co-morbidities (prevalence of diabetes, hypertension and cancer), health system parameters (WHO Health Index and hospital beds per 10,000 population); international arrivals and the stringency index, as a measure of country-level response to COVID-19. Multivariable linear regression was used to analyse the data. Results: Thirty-seven countries were included. Of all country-level predictors included in the multivariable model, only total number of international arrivals was significantly associated with the mean death rate: Beta 0.040 (95% Confidence Interval 0.017, 0.063), P <0.001. Conclusions and Relevance: International travel was directly associated with the mortality slope and thus potentially the spread of COVID-19. Very early restrictions on international travel may be a very effective strategy to control COVID outbreak and prevent related deaths.

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